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Friday, January 21, 2022

‘Modest change’ in people’s behaviour could shift balance in Covid transmission- NPHET

As Covid-19 cases surge throughout Ireland, Professor Philip Nolan has suggested that a “modest change’ in people’s behaviour would be enough to shift the balance in Covid-19 transmissions.

Nolan, who is the chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said that the balance has tipped in the wrong direction but that a change in people’s behaviour could alter that.

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He said that the change in behaviour would reduce the reproductive number of the virus below 1.0 where it can then be suppressed.

In the past seven days, cases have been up by about 30% on the previous week with health officials confirming 2,180 new cases earlier today.

The HSE has also expressed concern about less than 10% of the population being unvaccinated as well as the fact that 60% are in ICU.

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Nolan tweeted, “The increase over the last 10 days shows that this balance has tipped in the wrong direction: with high levels of circulating virus even a subtle change in the scale or nature of social contact can significantly shift the dynamics of viral transmission in the population.”

IMAGE – PA Images

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